A man takes either a bus or the subway to work with probabilities 0.3
and 0.7 respectively. When he takes the bus, he is late 30% of the
days, when he takes the subway he is late 20% of the days.
For 10 consecutive workdays, what is the chance he was late for less
than 2 times? What assumptions you need to make in order to answer this
question?Probability Application?
Prob of being late in a certain day=0.3*0.3+0.7*0.2
=0.23
Prob of being never late in all ten days=(1-0.23)^10
=0.073
Prob of being late in only one day =(1-0.23)^9 * 0.23
=0.022
Prob of being late for less than 2 times= 0.073+0.022
=0.095
Assumption is actually that the probabilities remain constant during the 10 days.
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